So there was an Ontario election...

This post constitutes what I feel to be my obligation to comment on yesterday’s Ontario election.

It is not controversial to say this was an unnecessary election. It was a calculated gamble by the PCs, which paid off by locking in their majority until 2029. They took a risk, and the electorate was okay with it. They were widely said to have a stretch goal of increasing their majority, which did not pan out; instead they won fewer seats than 2022. However, since some Tory MPPs had left the caucus since then, usually under a cloud, the PCs went into the election with 79 seats and, as of this writing, have 80, while shedding those unwanted ex-Tories.

So it’s back to regular business for the Ford government. Not much else to say, except that the 2025 PC slogan, “Protect Ontario” fits into the longstanding Ontario political culture narrative that Ontario voters reward parties that offer safety and sound management. It’s a natural successor to 2022’s “Get It Done.”

It was a bittersweet election for the Liberals. They increased their seats from 9 to 14, meaning the minivan party now has upgraded to a full size Ford Econoline and finally qualifies for official party status, and their vote from 24% to 30%, not astronomically different than the PC’s 43%. These should be good things for the party. But the NDP is still way ahead as the official opposition, even though their vote dropped by 5% and they lost a seat. And leader Bonnie Crombie couldn’t win her seat. I anticipate a new round of enthusiasm for electoral system reform among Ontario Liberals. Should Crombie step down? Of course not. Whatever the party’s problems, they go well beyond the leader.

And the NDP? I’m not sure what to say. They’re the second-place party for the third time, yet they seem unable to gain further traction or growth against FordMania, and as mentioned, dropped in the popular vote. Marit Stiles seems to be doing a good job as leader, but like her predecessor Andrea Horwath, is still largely unknown outside the political junkie class. There may well be a gender explanation here; regardless, the party seems largely stuck in second gear, for the third time.

The Green Party did okay by retaining its two seats. But it’s clear the provincial party is much like the federal party; largely a one-person show, with little evidence of long-term institutionalization beyond the leader or consistent upward growth. Still, kudos to Mike Schreiner for winning 57% of the vote in Guelph, 33% ahead of the next candidate.

Oh, and I have to admit I was wrong. I assumed Bobbi-Ann Brady, elected as an independent in Haldimand-Norfolk in 2022 was a one-time phenomenon, stemming from a local squabble that would blow over. Wow, was I wrong. She blew away her opponents yesterday with SIXTY-FOUR PERCENT of the vote. Kudos to her.

I was also wrong about voter turnout. I, and I think every pontificator like me, assumed it would be a record low in this impromptu winter election with so much else going on outside the province. But it went up modestly, from 43% to 45%! My only explanation is that the Trump threat has heightened people’s attention to the news, emboldening rather than distracting them.

So that’s about it for the 2025 Ontario election. With so much being the same, I’m glad to say our book is not outdated. See you in 2029!