Riding the Tiger
Recent rumblings in conservative parties
Twelve months ago the Liberal Party of Canada was in flames. But in 2025, it’s Canadian conservatives that are not ending the year well. British Columbia Conservative leader John Rustad stepped down; in the longstanding tradition of weird things in BC leadership politics, only after great confusion. Alberta premier Danielle Smith was booed at her own party convention after signing a memorandum of agreement with the federal government. And because I’m on a lot of mailing lists, I recently got an invitation to attend an event in Ottawa by Project Ontario, “a new initiative focused on rebuilding this province with conservative principles,” - i.e., finding the Ford government insufficiently to the right.
Meanwhile, another Conservative MP, Michael Ma, has crossed the floor to the Liberals, following Chris d’Entremont last month, plus whatever Matt Generoux was doing, and the Liberals are doing their best to unleash further paranoia within the Conservative caucus, suggesting it is ripe with more potential defectors.
What all these have in common is the struggle for Canadian conservatism to define itself in the Age of Trump.
21st century conservative populism is remarkably undisciplined. Unlike its predecessors, it knows no boundaries to its rage, and has difficulty accepting any leader that attempts to impose them. The Reform Party in comparison was a lockstep operation under Preston Manning. And many are now understanding that a major part of Stephen Harper’s control-freak persona was directed at keeping his own volatile ranks in line. When I walked around downtown Ottawa observing the trucker convoy, I kept wondering who could actually lead this bunch. There’s an old union adage that any idiot can lead a walkout. The trick is getting them to walk back in.
Today’s conservative populism is like a tiger: dangerous and difficult to tame. Past leaders like Erin O’Toole tried to lead the tiger where it didn’t want to go, leading to his demise. Pierre Poilievre and Danielle Smith are trying to ride the tiger; letting it roam more freely but under their control. But just barely.
It’s hard to ride the tiger without eventually getting eaten. Up until his demise as UCP leader, Jason Kenney had a reputation as one of the smartest and most strategic people in Canadian politics, successfully bringing together the factions of Alberta conservatism to victory. But the tiger eventually turned on him. John Rustad, arguably a tiger himself, showed himself unable to lead a party that still had many non-tigers. Doug Ford is fortunate that Ontario is not great tiger habitat, and for better or worse he does a good job of feeding his big cat population. There are dissenters, as mentioned above, but little sign that they carry much weight in a party that has won three strong majorities. Meanwhile, people like Michael Ma and Chris d’Entremont are tired of seeing the tiger’s insatiable appetite prioritized, and making it known.
But what’s a conservative leader to do? The dilemma is perfectly illustrated by this November Ekos poll, posted by Frank Graves
50-50! The party could not be more divided on the most polarizing issue of our times.(One wishes to meet the 3% of NDP supporters that approve of Trump.)
Pierre Poilievre recently shared his own updated view of brokerage politics by explaining his party as a Venn diagram, in which he focuses on the overlap between all the different elements, tiger- and non-tiger. But his continuing efforts to be the Greatest Leader of the Opposition Ever, rather than demonstrating he is prime ministerial material as this substack has hoped here and here, suggest his first priority is always keeping the tiger fed and still under his control.
While I’m confident Poilievre will comfortably pass his upcoming leadership review, it will be interesting to see exactly how this approach is evaluated. Similarly, Danielle Smith’s willingness to spend political capital to make a deal with the hated feds has cost her with her base. Conservative leaders may think they’ve got the tiger under control. But it is difficult to tame. There’s a good reason people don’t ride tigers.
That so many Conservatives think that crooked, liar and felony-convicted Trump is all right is shocking to me. Where are their values? And ethics/morality? Indecency, disrespect, bullying, racism, condescension, lies, incompetence, ignorance, belittling others, not following the law... all that crooked Trump do and stand for cannot be what Canadians value. That Conservatives think these things are all right really shock the conscience.
Come on, Conservative Canadians. There is literally not a single thing in the whole canon of "beliefs" held by our titular head, "DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 45-47" that is conservative, in harmony with the preservation of individual rights, or humane. He is an unabashed misogynist, a racist, an unindicted war criminal, an adjudged sexual abuser, a criminal and a perjurer. He has enough ties to a known international ring of sex traffickers that he saw need to order the DOJ to employ a staff of full-time special agents at the FBI just to purge his name from documents assembled during the investigations of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. He is lazy, incurious, self-serving and a rip-off artist. He doesn't give a damn about the law except insofar as he can circumvent it. And he has made virtually no effort to conceal his desire to take other countries by force--including yours! Pardon me, but this is just simply nuts. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.