Is Justin Trudeau toast?
There’s a lot of talk about the sagging fortunes of the Trudeau Liberal government after eight years in power. Polls consistently show the Conservatives with a solid lead under their young(ish) new leader. The pundits lament the lack of direction in the government. The public feels it isn’t responding to its top concerns of inflation and the rising cost of living. It seems that Prime Minister Trudeau has lost his spark and is just phoning it in. Is it time for him to go? Is he toast?
The above could apply to 1976 as easily as 2023.
Justin Trudeau’s governing career has so closely mirrored his father’s that it’s worth reviewing. Elected amid national adulation to a smashing majority government. Cut down to size four years later with a humbling minority. After two years of chafing, calling a new election. Pierre won another majority while Justin remained stuck with a minority, but the latter soon talked the NDP into an extended support deal, creating the same long-term stability.
So let’s look forward. The third term of the Pierre Trudeau government ended miserably, as the Liberals dragged things out to the end, losing thirteen of fifteen simultaneous test-case byelections in 1978, and then the government in the 1979 election. Soon after, Pierre Trudeau resigned as party leader, seemingly washed up after eleven years in power.
But then came the comeback. The Conservative minority fell, Pierre withdrew his resignation, and the Liberals steamrolled to their 1980 majority. And even in the 1979 election when they went down to defeat, the Liberals decisively won the popular vote, with 40% to Joe Clark’s Conservatives’ 36%, though of course under our electoral system it’s the seats that count. Still, it wasn’t a rout. And Pierre Trudeau’s last term was his mighty finale.
So it might seem a little early to count out Justin Trudeau.
Now while father and son share many similarities, there are differences. Constitutional issues were always Pierre’s “magnificent obsession,” to use the words of Clarkson and McCall; they drove him into politics, and were the unfinished business that brought him back in 1980. His son has no comparable centrepiece. It’s tricky to project what an unencumbered Justin Trudeau would do with a fourth term, even if he was handed back the political capital and enthusiasm of his first victory.
Justin also faces a different Conservative party. The 1970s Conservatives were a ragtag bunch, seething with dissension. Like the comedian of the era Rodney Dangerfield, Joe Clark got no respect. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre has the firmest grip on his party since Stephen Harper; dissenters have left entirely or learned to keep their mouths shut. Pierre Trudeau faced a noisy but ultimately weak opposition; and while a separatist party governed Quebec, there was no Bloc Quebecois to cut into the safe Liberal Quebec base.
In the end, the only good answer to whether Justin Trudeau is toast is that we will find out in due course. Yes, the evidence of the moment doesn’t look great. But let’s ask Prime Ministers Stanfield or Mulcair - or, say, Brian Mulroney in 1987 - whether political trends always end up the way everyone expects.
So let’s shift to a different scenario: will Justin Trudeau quit? Past evidence is unlikely.
Nearly all Canadian prime ministers overstay their welcome. King and Pearson are the only two that successfully stepped down and watched their party continue to new victories. Borden, Pierre Trudeau, and Mulroney all left on their own timing, but their successors went down miserably to defeat. Jean Chretien is a special category, with his retirement planning inextricably linked with keeping Paul Martin in his place.
As for Laurier, Meighen, Bennett, St. Laurent, Diefenbaker, Clark, Turner, Campbell, Martin, and Harper, the voters did the job. (Macdonald died in office, followed by the four ‘trivia quiz’ short-term leaders we won’t bother with.) The record isn’t much better in Britain. And in Australia, the last prime minister to resign voluntarily was Robert Menzies in 1966, since then, an equal number of prime ministers have been overthrown within their own party versus defeated in elections. So if I may use another aging cultural reference, the likelihood of Justin Trudeau executing a George Costanza and leaving on a high note is unlikely.
Going back to Trudeau the Elder, even Pierre dragged out his (second) retirement in 1984. John English says “There can be no doubt that Trudeau wanted to stay.” (Just Watch Me, p 602). Once again, it is not unreasonable to project on the son. Trudeaus like being prime minister, and regardless of the polls, Justin still seems to be mostly enjoying the job. And even if elements of the party are getting weary of him, he faces no impatient successors - no John Turner or Paul Martin. Those who do want the job know to keep their heads down. So [note to self; this is the part to edit in future if things turn out differently] it’s hard not to see Justin Trudeau leading his party into the next election, and perhaps even beyond.